Without doubt. I remember the phase in the 80s when we were all very excited as if India’s time in the sun had come. Rajiv Gandhi was talked about as the next Kennedy and sure enough there was a lot of optimism in India and it derailed quickly because policy didn’t keep pace with aspiration. And the last five years in many ways have been interesting and if you look at this period where literally everybody in the world spoke about India and its time in the sun but we were also in a global economic sweet spot. So the rising tide lifted all boats and India was one such boat, so we had cheap liquidity sloshing around in India, so capex happened at a very rapid pace and over a substantial component of the GDP.
We also had another sweet spot where if you look at 2001-02 phase, the public sector had a negative growth of about 2%, it swung over a period of four-five years to a positive growth of 2%. So we had a substantial swing and contribution to GDP over there but structurally, we are little bit like an industrialist who has a plant, which is running on 100% utilisation levels but spending away all the cash flow on fancy hairdo, foreign trips and restaurants and now to grow he needs to setup a new plant and in order to setup the new plant, he has withered away all the cash — read: public debt and fiscal deficit for India — and therefore has to rely an exogenous capital to set up the new plant. Therefore, a lot of India’s above trend growth has been hostage to availability of cheap capital from overseas, which found its way into India and in the last probably the period leading from 2004 to 2008 when the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was in power and I am not talking about the period when the world economy collapsed. India was able to address its fiscal deficit by only 120 bps over a period of four years when GDP growth was growing at 9%, tax-to-GDP ratio grew from 6.5% to almost 9.5% and now we are almost in a rock and hard place where policy reform whether it’s outside of or inside of the budget, the pace of it has been so slow and so late that we have to mean revert.
It will be difficult for India to continue to grow at 9% unless the world economy swings, cheap capital comes India’s way. So there has been a lot of hubris, lots of over-optimism, there will be a base rate of growth because our demographics and internal consumption are so powerful. But to rise above that, we will have to overcome the hubris and move to action and that’s going to still be a struggle for India, from where I sit.